Fulham vs Southampton
Mateus Fernandes has been a consistent presence in midfield, committing 20 fouls across 13 starts this season. He has made at least one foul in 11 of those matches, highlighting his physical approach to the game. However, in Southampton’s most recent outing—a dismal 3-0 defeat that was effectively decided within the first 20 minutes—Fernandes didn’t commit a single foul, perhaps a reflection of how outplayed the team was overall. Notably, in 6 of his 11 starts where he has made a foul, Fernandes has recorded two or more, showing a tendency to pick up multiple infractions when involved.
Southampton head into their next game desperate for a reaction after a 5-0 thrashing by Spurs, which also cost manager Russell Martin his job. Fernandes will likely be tasked with sitting deep alongside Flynn Downes to provide defensive cover, especially with the threat posed by Everton’s Iwobi, Traoré, and Raúl Jiménez. The match takes on added intrigue with Tim Robinson officiating—a referee known for awarding the fifth-most fouls in the Premier League. This could increase the scrutiny on Fernandes’ physical style in what promises to be a pivotal game for the Saints.
- Best Bet: Mateus Fernandes over 1.5 fouls at 2.25 with Bet365
Leicester vs Wolves
This game promises to be a thrilling encounter. Wolves, fresh off sacking Gary O’Neil after their defeat to Ipswich, now face another relegation rival in a crucial matchup. Discipline has been a serious issue for Wolves lately, with Aït-Nouri sent off after the final whistle against Ipswich and Cunha awaiting a ban for allegedly punching a member of the backroom staff. Mario Lemina also had to be restrained after their loss to West Ham, further highlighting the tension within the squad. Lemina made two fouls against Ipswich and has committed 17 fouls in 15 games this season, showing his aggressive style in midfield.
Wolves will come into this match fired up, knowing they can’t afford another loss. However, they face a Leicester side packed with pace and creativity. Facundo Buonanotte, in particular, will be a player to watch. The tricky midfielder loves to take players on, having been fouled 18 times in just 10 Premier League appearances.
From a disciplinary perspective, it’s worth noting that Soumaré, under manager Ruud van Nistelrooy, has taken up a slightly deeper role in midfield during Ndidi’s absence. He has already collected five yellow cards this season despite only starting five games and playing just 475 minutes. In his two starts under Van Nistelrooy, he’s been carded in both, making him a likely candidate for another booking if he starts here. While a card double of Lemina and Soumaré might seem tempting, their aggressive tendencies could backfire in what’s expected to be a heated contest. Both players are priced at 12.0 to be carded.
- Best Bet: Lemina to commit 2+ fouls at 2.4 with Paddy
- Best Bet: Lemina & Soumare to be both booked at 12.6 with Unibet
Ipswich vs Newcastle
A reliable source has indicated that Jack Clarke is set to start for Ipswich on Saturday, and I’m keen to back him to be fouled at least twice. Clarke has been fouled 14 times across his 4 starts and 10 substitute appearances this season, totaling 504 minutes on the pitch. That works out to being fouled every 36 minutes on average.
In his starts, Clarke has been fouled 0, 1, 1, and 3 times, showing some variance but clear potential to draw contact. Across his 14 appearances, he’s been fouled at least once in 11 games. This weekend, he’s likely to be up against Tonali and Guimarães in midfield, both of whom are tasked with breaking up play and stopping runners. The duo have committed a combined 37 fouls in their 22 starts this season, making Clarke to be fouled 2+ at 2.25 with Paddy Power a strong play.
Another standout bet is Jens Cajuste to be fouled at least once, priced at 1.73 with Paddy. Cajuste has been fouled in 5 of his 7 starts and thrives on receiving the ball, turning away from defenders, and driving forward. While his midfield partner Morsy focuses on breaking up play deep, Cajuste operates higher up the pitch, where he’s more likely to attract challenges. He was fouled three times against Wolves last week in just 74 minutes. Against Newcastle’s physical midfield, this looks like a fantastic value bet—and arguably one of the best bets of the weekend.
- Best Bet: Jack Clarke to be fouled 2+ times at 2.25 with Paddy
- Best Bet: Jens Cajuste to be fouled 1+ times at 1.73 with Paddy
Comments (0)