Man City vs Plymouth
Manchester City welcome Plymouth to the Etihad in the FA Cup, and it’s hard to see anything other than a dominant victory for Pep Guardiola’s side. While Plymouth pulled off an upset against Liverpool in the last round and have improved since Wayne Rooney’s departure (W4-D4-L3 across all competitions), facing City at home is a completely different challenge. With their Champions League hopes already over and the Premier League title slipping away, City are likely to shift their full focus to securing FA Cup silverware. Sitting comfortably in the top four with little domestic pressure, Guardiola has every reason to prioritise this competition.
Plymouth’s recent performances suggest they will struggle to keep City at bay. They rank bottom of the xPTS table over the last eight Championship matches, highlighting their struggles at both ends of the pitch. Meanwhile, City’s FA Cup dominance under Guardiola speaks for itself. At home in domestic cup competitions, they have played 29 matches, losing just three and drawing two, while scoring a staggering 111 goals and conceding only 19—an average of 3.26 goals per game. Against lower-league opponents, City’s attacking firepower is relentless, and with key players likely to feature, they should comfortably surpass 2.5 team goals.
Discipline-wise, FA Cup matches tend to see fewer bookings compared to league games. Across 37 home FA Cup matches under Guardiola, City’s games have averaged just 2.55 cards, dropping to 1.94 when facing non-Premier League opponents. Their last few FA Cup home games against lower-league sides have seen 2, 2, 1, 1, 3, and 0 cards—all comfortably under 3.5 match cards. The referee, Craig Pawson, has averaged 3.05 cards per game in his last 20 FA Cup fixtures, but removing two high-profile clashes (Sunderland vs. Newcastle and Arsenal vs. Man Utd) lowers that figure to 2.83. With City likely to dominate possession and control the tempo, Plymouth will spend large spells chasing the ball rather than engaging in physical battles, further reducing the likelihood of a high card count.
With City’s cup pedigree, attacking firepower, and the nature of FA Cup officiating, expect City to score over 2.5 goals and the match to stay under 3.5 cards.
- Best Bet: City over 2.5 goals & under 3.5 match cards at 1.95 with Betway
Bournemouth vs Wolves
Wolves secured a surprise 1-0 victory over Bournemouth in the Premier League just days ago, but the result was heavily influenced by a controversial VAR decision. Illia Zabarnyi’s early red card left Bournemouth with ten men, allowing Wolves to capitalize on their numerical advantage before seeing out a crucial three points.
This rematch is expected to feature strong starting lineups from both sides, but Bournemouth will need to adjust defensively in Zabarnyi’s absence. That reshuffle could open the door for Wolves to create chances, though Bournemouth, playing at home, will be determined to respond and should have enough to get revenge.
One player who will be key for Wolves is Matheus Cunha. He started in the last round as Wolves aimed for consistency in selection and remains central to their attacking play. In the previous round, he registered eight shots, five on target, and across the Premier League season, he has managed 86 shots in 26 games. He has had at least one shot in every league match, two or more in 23 of 26 games, and against Bournemouth specifically, he recorded three shots in their most recent meeting and two in the reverse fixture.
Wolves’ attacking play runs through Cunha, and when he performs well, the team follows. If he can find space against a reshuffled Bournemouth defence, he will be a major threat once again.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score & Cunha over 1.5 shots at 1.86 with Coral
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