Tottenham vs Newcastle
Dominic Solanke’s style of play and Newcastle’s midfield dynamics make a strong case for him committing at least two fouls in their upcoming clash. Here’s why:
Fouling Frequency: Solanke has committed 24 fouls in 16 starts this season, averaging 1.5 fouls per game. He’s made at least one foul in 11 of those 16 matches, showing a consistent tendency to get involved physically.
Deep-lying Role: Solanke often drops deep to link play, which brings him into direct battles with Newcastle’s midfield enforcers, particularly Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali. Both players are magnets for contact due to their technical ability and roles in advancing the ball.
Bruno Guimaraes: The most fouled player in the Premier League this season, Bruno has been fouled 66 times in just 19 games, an average of 3.47 per match. He’s been fouled at least twice in 10 of those games.
Sandro Tonali: Though less prominent than Bruno in this regard, Tonali has still drawn 17
- Best Bet: Solanke to commit 2+ fouls at 2.1 with Paddy
Tottenham vs Newcastle
Porro and Spence are expected to play as full-backs, with Porro consistently occupying the right-back position when both are in the lineup.
Anthony Gordon is the third most fouled player in the Premier League, with 41 fouls committed against him in 16 games. He has been fouled at least twice in 11 of those matches and at least once in all 16.
Last season, Porro committed three fouls across the two games against Newcastle. With Spurs struggling this season and Newcastle’s midfield displaying considerable strength, Gordon is likely to see plenty of the ball.
- Best Bet: Porro to commit 2+ fouls at 2.3 with Paddy
Southampton vs Brentford
Southampton have undergone a complete transformation in style since the arrival of Ivan Juric. The open, attacking play with a focus on building from the back under Russell Martin has been replaced with a more robust, defensive approach.
Under Martin, Southampton averaged 11.69 fouls per game. However, in just two games under Juric, they’ve committed 15 and 19 fouls, reflecting a shift toward a more aggressive, high-pressing style—something Juric himself likened to “death metal,” his favorite music genre.
This is a crucial game for Southampton, especially considering Brentford’s dismal away record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, scoring just 6 goals. If Southampton have any hope of survival, this is a must-win fixture.
- Best Bet: Southampton to commit 12+ fouls at 2.0
- Best Bet: Southampton to commit 15+ fouls at 4.50
- Best Bet: Southampton to commit 17+ fouls at 10.0
Fulham vs Ipswich Town
Liam Delap has committed 41 fouls this season, with only one player in the Premier League committing more.
When Delap has started, opposition defenders have drawn 66 fouls—an average of 3.88 per game. Ipswich, Delap’s team, rank second only to Wolves for fouls committed on the road.
Rather than backing Delap to make 2+ fouls at odds of 1.33, Fulham defenders present an excellent alternative:
- Best Bet: Joachim Andersen: To be fouled 1+ at 1.73 with Paddy Power
- Best Bet: Issa Diop: To be fouled 1+ at 2.88 with Sky Bet
- Best Bet: Antonee Robinson: To be fouled 1+ at 1.73 and to be fouled 2+ at 4 with Paddy
- Best Bet: Timothy Castagne: To be fouled 1+ at 1.83 and to be fouled 2 at 4.5 with Paddy
Robinson and Castagne stand out, as both are likely to push forward, making them prime candidates for fouls.
Additionally, Jens Cajuste to be fouled at least once at 1.83 looks appealing. Cajuste has been fouled eight times in 10 starts, showcasing his ability to receive the ball under pressure, roll defenders, and drive forward. He’ll be up against Sasa Lukic, who has committed 28 fouls in 13 starts, making this a promising matchup.
- Best Bet: Jens Casjuste to be fouled 1+ at 1.83 with Paddy
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