Nottingham Forest vs Southampton
Southampton are in serious trouble, effectively relegated, with their primary aim now being to avoid setting the lowest points total in Premier League history.
Southampton’s away form has been abysmal, with a record of W1-D3-L17 overall and W0-D2-L9 on the road. They’ve scored just six away goals while conceding an average of 1.82 per game, managing only one clean sheet in their travels. They’ve also conceded 2+ goals in six of their last 11 away games, with an xG of just 0.71 on the road — the lowest in the league.
In contrast, Nottingham Forest have been formidable at home. Their record of W5-D3-L2 at the City Ground includes just eight goals conceded, three of which came against Newcastle. Forest have let in only two goals in their last six Premier League matches, boasting a home xGA of 0.98 — the third-best in the league. They have also conceded the fifth-fewest shots in the box at home. Against bottom-half teams, Forest remain unbeaten with a record of W10-D2-L0.
Defensive vulnerabilities, especially from set pieces, have been a recurring issue. They have conceded the second-most goals from dead-ball situations, trailing only Wolves, and no team has allowed more shots from these scenarios. Additionally, Southampton have the highest xGA from set pieces in the league, underlining their struggles to defend effectively.
Nikola Milenkovic could prove invaluable in such situations. Known for his strength and aggression, Milenkovic has been a consistent threat at set pieces, with 19 attempts on goal this season, four on target, resulting in two goals. He has registered at least one shot in 11 of his last 13 matches, showcasing his consistency.
Discipline could play a significant role in this match. Every team visiting the City Ground this season has received at least one booking, with an average of 3.0 cards per game. Southampton have been carded in every away match, averaging 3.27 cards per game. Referee Anthony Taylor, who averages 3.63 cards per game in his 19 Premier League matches this season, previously officiated a Southampton game where he issued five yellows and one red card.
- Best Bet: Forest to win, Nikola Milenkovic over 0.5 shots and Southampton over 0 cards at 1.86 with Bet365
Man Utd vs Brighton
Manchester United’s home record stands at W5-D1-L5. Their victories have come against Southampton, Leicester, Everton, and Brentford — teams that have collectively managed just three away wins between them. They also defeated Fulham on the opening weekend, a deserved victory, but their midweek performance against Southampton, despite a 3-1 win, was unconvincing.
Under manager Amorim, United are expected to sit back and defend deep, which coincides with Brighton’s approach. The Seagulls will likely dominate possession but may find it challenging to create clear chances against a resolute United defense.
Brighton rank ninth for away xPTS, with an overall record of W7-D10-L4 and W4-D4-L3 on the road. Their away defeats have come against Liverpool, Chelsea, and Fulham — the latter sitting fourth on xPTS. Against bottom-half sides, Brighton have an impressive record of W4-D6-L1, their only loss being to an improving Crystal Palace. Notably, Brighton have already won at Newcastle and Bournemouth while securing points at Arsenal and Aston Villa.
Discipline could be a key factor. Every visiting team to Old Trafford this season has received at least one booking, averaging 2.18 cards per game. United themselves have been carded in 9 of their 11 home matches, averaging 2.36 cards per game. Brighton’s away games have been particularly card-heavy, averaging 4.55 cards per match, with both teams receiving 1+ cards in all 11 games and 2+ cards each in 8 of them.
The referee, Peter Bankes, averages 4.08 cards per match and has issued both teams at least one card in 10 of his last 12 games. This suggests a high likelihood of a physical, card-heavy encounter.
- Best Bet: Brighton double chance & both sides to receive a card at 2.0 with Bet365
Comments (0)