Since the start of December, I’ve been sharing my Premier League best bets on this website, alongside three FA Cup selections and one Championship bet. In total, I’ve posted 44 bets during this period, with average odds of 1.96, and staked 43 units. These bets have produced an impressive 17.36-unit profit, resulting in a strong 40.4% ROI.
A detailed breakdown of all these bets can be found on our website (link available in my bio). I’ve identified four appealing bets for the upcoming midweek fixtures, and I’m confident we can maintain this excellent form throughout February and the remainder of the season.
Monthly breakdowns of our betting performance will also be available on the website at the end of this month.
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
Crystal Palace have lost just six of their last 20 Premier League matches, boasting a respectable record of W8-D6-L6. However, their home form remains disappointing, with only two wins at Selhurst Park all season—one against Tottenham, the other against bottom-placed Southampton. Palace have scored in their last seven home matches, yet have also conceded in 11 of their 13 games at home, making it highly likely both sides will find the net here. Indeed, over 1.5 goals has landed in 10 of Palace’s 13 home matches.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have struggled away from home, winning just four away matches all season—against West Ham, Leicester, Fulham, and Everton. Villa have kept just one clean sheet away but have found the net in eight of their 12 away matches, averaging 1.17 goals scored per away game while conceding an average of 1.92 goals. Over their last eight fixtures, Villa rank 13th for xPTS and have conceded an average of 1.55 xGA per game. Over the season, Villa are 19th for away xPTS
Given these stats, it seems almost certain we will see at least two goals in this match.
Will Hughes is expected to start in the heart of Palace’s midfield, facing a talented and energetic Villa midfield featuring McGinn and Tielemans, whilst trying to deal with the pace and movement of Ramsey, Rogers, Asensio and Rashford. Hughes has been consistently aggressive this season, committing 48 fouls in 23 appearances. Notably, in the 18 games he has started, Hughes has committed 43 fouls, making at least one foul in 16 games and at least two fouls in 15 of those 18 starts.
Hughes currently ranks fourth in the Premier League for most fouls committed, averaging 2.7 fouls per 90 minutes, the second-highest rate in the league. Considering Villa’s midfield will likely dominate possession at times, Hughes will need to be aggressive in regaining control, which increases the likelihood he will commit at least two fouls in this match.
Combining over 1.5 match goals with Will Hughes to commit at least two fouls offers excellent value based on these statistics. As a side note, Hughes also has disciplinary concerns—he has collected nine yellow cards this season, receiving a booking in five of his last eight games, further reinforcing the likelihood of his aggressive approach continuing here.
- Best Bet: Over 1.5 match goals and Will Hughes to commit over 1.5 fouls at 1.80 with Bet365
Brentford vs Everton
The odds available for the Brentford vs. Everton match are surprisingly generous, possibly due to bookmakers being slow to recognize Everton’s transformation into a more attack-minded side under David Moyes. Brentford have struggled recently at the Gtech Community Stadium, losing four of their last five home matches, but their games have been exceptionally high-scoring, averaging 4.15 goals per match.
This season, Brentford’s home fixtures have consistently delivered goals, with both teams scoring in 10 of their 13 home games. Against teams in the bottom half, goals have been even more frequent: both teams scored in six out of seven matches, and over 2.5 goals landed in five of those seven fixtures.
Everton, under David Moyes, have also become more open. Their Premier League matches since Moyes returned have averaged 3.14 goals per game, with Everton themselves scoring in six of those seven matches. During this period, both teams scored in four matches, while over 2.5 goals occurred in five. Notably, Everton have scored two or more goals in five of those seven matches.
Over the last eight matches (seven under Moyes), Everton rank fourth for xPTS and ninth for non-penalty xG ratio, averaging 1.20 non-penalty xG per game. Meanwhile, Brentford have averaged 1.51 non-penalty xG per game but conceded 1.32 during the same period.
Brentford’s dynamic attacking trio of Wissa, Mbeumo, and Schade should be more than capable of exploiting Everton’s vulnerabilities. Simultaneously, Everton now carry a genuine attacking threat, something missing under former manager Sean Dyche.
With both teams capable of scoring multiple goals, backing over two goals is the most logical betting angle here.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.87 with Betfair
Chelsea vs Southampton
Southampton are undoubtedly the worst side in the Premier League this season. Over the last 4, 8, and even 12 matches, they rank bottom for xPTS, highlighting their consistent struggles. They travel to a Chelsea side enduring their own defensive crisis. Chelsea have now gone nine Premier League matches without a clean sheet and have managed just two clean sheets in their last 20. At Stamford Bridge, matches have been high-scoring, averaging 3.08 goals per game, with Chelsea scoring in 11 of their 12 home fixtures but managing just one clean sheet—a 3-0 victory over Aston Villa back in early December.
Southampton’s defensive record has been awful, conceding an average of 2.16 non-penalty xGA in their last eight matches, and 1.85 goals per away match. They have conceded two or more goals in seven of their 13 away games, managing only one clean sheet—a fortunate 0-0 draw with Fulham. However, under their new manager, Southampton have become slightly more adventurous, scoring in six of their last nine matches, including away goals against Ipswich (2), Nottingham Forest (2), Man United (1), and Crystal Palace (1). With Chelsea’s defensive frailties, Southampton have a good chance of finding the net here, making over 2.5 goals an appealing bet.
Cards also look certain. Chelsea have seen both teams receive cards in all 12 home matches this season, averaging 5.33 total cards per game. Chelsea themselves have received two or more cards in 9 of 12 home matches, with visitors also collecting two or more cards in 9 of these games. Southampton, meanwhile, average 3.31 cards per away match, collecting two or more in 12 of their 13 away matches. The referee, Thomas Bramall, averages 3.8 cards per game and has issued cards to both teams in three of his five games this season. Given Southampton’s desperate need for points and Chelsea’s aggressive playing style, both teams picking up at least one card is highly likely.
Since the managerial change, Southampton have adopted a more attacking approach, benefiting lively winger Kamaldeen Sulemana, who has been particularly active in recent matches. Sulemana has taken 10 shots in his last three starts, with several on target. Chelsea concede an average of 11.5 shots per home match, while Southampton average 9.69 shots per away game, suggesting Sulemana will have multiple opportunities to register at least one shot.
Combining over 2.5 goals, both teams to receive at least one card, and Kamaldeen Sulemana to have at least one shot creates an appealing betting angle, given Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities, Southampton’s improved attacking intent, and both teams’ disciplinary records.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals, both teams to receive a card and Sulemana over 0.5 shots at 2.0 with Bet365
Manchester Utd vs Ipswich Town
It’s now or never for Ipswich. They started strongly against Spurs last weekend and could have easily taken a two-goal lead early on, but familiar defensive weaknesses allowed Tottenham back into the game. Although Ipswich rallied to get back into the game, a deflected third Spurs goal ultimately ended their chances. Nevertheless, Ipswich’s improved recent performances suggest they can cause problems for a struggling Manchester United side.
United have been particularly poor defensively, ranking 19th for xPTS over the last four matches, while Ipswich actually sit slightly higher at 17th. In this period, Ipswich have averaged 1.03 xG per game, and United have conceded an alarming average of 1.73 xGA. United also rank 18th for non-penalty xG ratio over the last four games, with Ipswich above them in 16th.
Under their current manager, United have managed just one clean sheet at home—a flattering 4-0 win over Everton, where they remarkably scored four times from an xG of just 1.07. The score line was harsh on Everton, who themselves were unfortunate to lose by such a margin. United have won only four of their last 15 league matches under their manager, with recent opponents such as Everton, Spurs, Palace, Brighton, Southampton, and Wolves all managing to score against them.
Ipswich manager Kieran McKenna returns to Old Trafford for the first time since leaving United just over three years ago. Ipswich are likely to set up with five at the back, aiming to frustrate United and exploit their defensive vulnerabilities on the counterattack. Earlier in the season at Portman Road, Ipswich arguably deserved to beat United, highlighting their capability to threaten United’s shaky backline once again.
While backing Ipswich to win outright (or even a draw-no-bet) is risky, their ability to create chances against a defensively fragile United team is clear. Therefore, the best angle here is backing both teams to score.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.80 with Coral
Brighton vs Bournemouth
Rutter and Adams are both highly likely to commit at least one foul each, and the match should see at least two goals based on their disciplinary records and team trends.
Rutter has shown a consistent pattern of committing fouls, with five in his last three starts, including at least one in each. Across 25 games this season, he has made 30 fouls, and in his 16 starts, that number rises to 27. He has committed at least one foul in 14 of those 16 starts, highlighting his tendency to get involved physically.
Tyler Adams has a similarly strong record of committing fouls, with 23 in 16 appearances. In his 10 starts, he has been even more aggressive, making 19 fouls—an average of nearly two per game. He has committed at least one foul in eight of those 10 starts, reinforcing the likelihood of him picking up another in this match.
The expectation of at least two goals is supported by Brighton’s home record, where over 1.5 goals has landed in nine of their 12 matches. They have only managed three clean sheets (against Ipswich, Brentford, and Chelsea) and have failed to score three times. Their home matches average 2.58 goals per game, with both teams scoring in eight of them.
Bournemouth’s away games have been even more goal-heavy, averaging 3.62 goals per match. Both teams have scored in 10 of their 13 away fixtures, with over 2.5 goals landing in 10 as well. They have found the net in 11 of those 13 matches but have managed just one clean sheet, which came against Manchester United. Over 1.5 goals has been hit in 12 of their 13 away games, making it highly probable that this match will see at least two goals.
Given Rutter and Adams’ tackling tendencies and the goal-scoring trends of both teams, it’s highly likely that both players will commit at least one foul, and the match will produce at least two goals.
- Best Bets: Rutter 1+ foul committed, Adams 1+ foul committed & over 1.5 match goals at 1.82 with Paddy
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