Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest
Ipswich Town are sinking fast, and their recent performances suggest they are one of the worst teams in the Premier League right now. Their back-to-back promotions have shielded them from major criticism for much of the season, but the reality is grim—particularly at home. They sit 19th for xPTS and xG ratio, while only Southampton have conceded more shots on target (5.21 per game). Defensively, they allow 8.57 shots inside the box per match, with only four sides conceding more—teams that could all be relegated by the end of the weekend.
Their defensive record is damning. Ipswich are conceding 2.07 goals per game, and that figure worsens at home to 2.14 goals per game. Their home xGA stands at 1.93, further reinforcing their vulnerability at Portman Road. They have conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their 14 home games and have managed just one clean sheet at home all season. Their last league win came on December 30th, and they have since lost seven of their last eight matches. Only Southampton have conceded more big chances, and Ipswich have won the xG battle just four times all season, with only Southampton faring worse.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest have been one of the strongest away teams in the league, boasting the fifth-best away record (W7-D2-L5). Against teams 11th or lower, their record is outstanding: W11-D1-L0, with eight clean sheets in those games. They have also scored 2+ goals in five of their last six away matches against bottom-half opposition.
With Forest pushing for a top-four finish, this game presents a golden opportunity to strengthen their position. Eight of their final ten games are against bottom-half teams, making this a crucial stretch in their Champions League push. They rank 10th for away xPTS, but their performances against weaker sides have been dominant, and another three points look likely here.
Given Ipswich’s collapse and Forest’s form against bottom-half opposition, backing Forest to win is the clear play.
- Best Bet: Nottingham Forest to win at 2.0 with Bet365
Southampton vs Wolves
Wolves have a prime opportunity to all but guarantee their Premier League survival as they face Southampton, a side on course to be one of the worst in the league’s history. Southampton’s decline has been staggering, and over their last eight matches, they have conceded an average of 2.47 xG per game—the worst in the division. They rank bottom for expected points (xPTS) over the last 4, 8, and 12 games, have allowed the most big chances (16) in that period, and are conceding 11.5 shots inside their box per match—clear indicators of a side completely out of their depth.
Their home form is just as dismal. Southampton have a W1-D1-L11 record at St. Mary’s, scoring just nine goals while conceding 2.85 per game. They have conceded 2+ goals in nine of their 13 home matches, keeping just one clean sheet all season. They have won the xG battle in only three games all season, and no team has conceded more big chances. They sit bottom of the league for home xPTS, home xG, home xGA, shots on target taken, and shots on target conceded—a damning indictment of their season.
Wolves, by contrast, have found some form under Victor Pereira, picking up 14 points from 12 games since his appointment. When extrapolated over a full season, that equates to 44 points, which in recent years would have seen them finish 12th-15th. Since the managerial change, Wolves rank 12th for non-penalty xG ratio and 14th for xPTS over the last eight games, showing steady improvement.
With Southampton conceding 2.43 goals per game while scoring just 0.71, their fate looks sealed. If Ipswich fail to beat Nottingham Forest, a Wolves victory here would effectively confirm their Premier League survival. Given the gulf in quality, form, and motivation between these two sides, Wolves to win is the standout bet.
- Best Bet: Wolves win at 2.05 with BetVictor
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest
I have backed Enciso on another website that I write for and after careful consideration I am going to add him here as well.
Julio Enciso is expected to feature in the No. 10 role for Ipswich, just behind Liam Delap, and his recent shot output suggests he will be heavily involved in attacking play. Despite limited opportunities, Enciso has proven to be highly active in front of goal, making him an ideal candidate for the shots market.
In his three starts for Ipswich, he has already recorded 11 shots and five on target, averaging 3.67 shots per start. What’s even more impressive is that one of those matches saw him play just 16 minutes against Aston Villa, yet he still managed to register a shot on target. When given a proper run in the team, Enciso is extremely trigger-happy.
When he has played 74+ minutes in a match for Ipswich, his attacking output soars—averaging 10 total shots and two shots on target per game. This isn’t a new trend either. Since joining from Brighton on loan in January, he has made five starts across both clubs, recording 20 shots and nine on target, maintaining at least one shot in every start and at least one shot on target in all five games. Even in a 57-minute appearance for Brighton against Aston Villa, he still managed a shot on target, proving his ability to consistently test the keeper.
Across the 484 minutes he has played in the Premier League this season, Enciso has racked up 31 shots and 16 shots on target. That translates to a shot every 15 minutes and a shot on target every 30 minutes—an elite-level shot frequency for a player with limited game time.
Given these numbers, three or more shots looks highly achievable. He is averaging well above that when starting, and with Ipswich expected to rely on him for creativity in attack, he should see plenty of the ball in shooting areas.
Backing Enciso for a shot on target at 1.73 remains a strong bet, but for even better value, backing over 2.5 shots in total is the standout play, given his consistent shot volume when on the pitch.
- Best Bet: Julio Enciso over 2.5 shots at 2.1 with Skybet
Everton vs West Ham
Everton have been in strong form under David Moyes, going W4-D4-L1, with their only loss coming in his first game against Aston Villa. They have scored in eight of their nine matches since his return, ranking second for expected points over the last eight games, behind only Liverpool. Their attacking numbers are impressive, sitting fourth in non-penalty xG ratio and averaging 1.35 non-penalty xG per game over that period. West Ham, on the other hand, have been inconsistent under Graham Potter, managing just two clean sheets in eight games while conceding 1.21 xGA per match. The Hammers have also allowed eight big chances in their last eight games, reinforcing the likelihood of Everton finding the net again.
Despite Everton’s intensity under Moyes, the game is unlikely to be overly aggressive. Their matches have averaged 3.78 cards, but if you exclude the Merseyside derby, that figure drops to 3.0. West Ham’s games under Potter have averaged 3.38 cards, and their last two matches have seen just one card in total. Referee Darren Bond has averaged 4.27 cards per game this season, but in his last two outings, he has shown just two cards each time. With Everton and West Ham level on points and 16 clear of the relegation zone, this is a fixture with little riding on it, meaning neither side is likely to play with excessive aggression.
Beto’s form makes him a strong candidate to register at least one shot. He has recorded at least two shots on target in each of his last six starts and has had at least one shot in every game he has started under Moyes. West Ham’s defensive numbers also suggest he will have opportunities. They have conceded eight big chances in their last eight games and have allowed their opponents to dominate the shot count in key matches, such as against Arsenal (20-5) and Fulham (21-4). Even in their 3-2 win over Fulham, they lost the xG battle 1.90 to 0.92 and conceded five shots on target, underlining their defensive frailties. With Everton creating eight big chances in their last eight games, Beto should have at least one shooting opportunity in this match.
- Best Bet: Everton over 0 goals, under 5 match cards & Beto over 0.5 shots at 1.90 with Bet365
Leicester City vs Man Utd
Leicester look resigned to their fate, with relegation to the Championship all but certain. Their struggles in both attack and defense have been glaring, managing just one clean sheet all season and winning only twice at home, with a record of W2-D3-L9. They come into this game on a five-match losing streak and have just one win in their last 13. Their attacking form is particularly poor, scoring only once in their last five games in all competitions, while at home, they haven’t found the net in six straight matches.
Manchester United haven’t been much better on the road under Rúben Amorim, with a record of W2-D3-L3, scoring just eight goals in those eight matches. Leicester’s defensive numbers are the best among the bottom three, conceding an average of 1.53 non-penalty xGA in their last eight games, which suggests they won’t be completely torn apart. Meanwhile, their own attacking output has been dismal, averaging just 0.67 non-penalty xG per game over the same period. All 15 games under Ruud van Nistelrooy have gone under five goals, with their home matches averaging just 2.5 goals per game. Amorim’s United games have averaged 2.94 goals, while Leicester’s matches under Van Nistelrooy have averaged 2.93. The Foxes have failed to score in 10 of their 15 games under their new manager, managing just nine goals in total. With Leicester struggling to create chances and United lacking firepower, it’s hard to see this match producing five or more goals.
The card count should also be low. Leicester have picked up just one match card in their last two games, seemingly accepting their fate, while their home games under Van Nistelrooy have averaged just 2.88 cards per game. United’s away games under Amorim have been slightly higher at 3.38 cards per game, but the referee, Thomas Bramall, has one of the lowest card averages in the Premier League at 3.67 per game. In his last four matches, he has given out just 3, 0, 4, and 4 cards, and only two referees average fewer cards this season. With Leicester lacking fight and United having little at stake, this game is unlikely to produce many bookings.
Bruno Fernandes remains central to everything United do. He is their primary playmaker, takes penalties and free kicks, and consistently looks to shoot. Across 27 league starts this season, he has registered 68 shots, managing at least one in 24 of those games. The only times he failed were against Ipswich, Arsenal, and Spurs, with the latter being a match in which he played just 41 minutes. In the reverse fixture against Leicester, he had two shots. Given his importance to United’s attack and his regular involvement in set pieces, it is highly likely he registers at least one shot in this match.
- Best Bet: Under 5 goals, Under 5 cards & Bruno Fernandes over 0.5 shots at 1.80 with Bet365/Betway
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