Saturday
Wolves vs Arsenal
Wolves find themselves teetering just above the relegation zone on goal difference, facing a tough challenge as they welcome Arsenal to Molineux. Wolves’ form has been poor, with three consecutive Premier League defeats, each time conceding three goals. Their struggles are reflected in the underlying metrics, as they rank 17th for xPTS over the last four matches, underscoring their ongoing difficulties.
Arsenal, by contrast, sit comfortably in third place and have lost just twice all season. Their away record of W5-D4-L2 is solid, especially given their tough schedule, with seven of their 11 away games coming against teams currently sitting in the top half of the table. Despite this, Arsenal have excelled against bottom-half sides, remaining unbeaten with a record of W10-D2-L0. Impressively, seven of those 12 matches were won by at least two clear goals, highlighting their ability to dominate against struggling opposition.
Wolves’ home form offers little hope of an upset. They have managed just two wins at Molineux this season, and over their last 20 home matches, they have claimed six victories. However, those wins came against weaker sides such as Southampton, Luton, Fulham, Sheffield United, and Everton. Of these teams, two have already been relegated, with Southampton firmly at the bottom of the table.
Given Wolves’ defensive vulnerabilities and Arsenal’s consistency, it’s difficult to see past an away win for the Gunners. Arsenal’s strength against bottom-half teams and Wolves’ inability to perform at home make this a game that heavily favours the visitors.
Wolves have endured significant struggles with set-piece defence in the Premier League this season, conceding a league-high 15 goals from such situations. This is despite an xGA of just 6.79, highlighting how poorly they’ve defended these opportunities. They’ve also allowed the third-most shots from set pieces, with 33.21% of their shots conceded coming from second-phase situations—the second-highest percentage in the league.
Their vulnerability was on full display in their recent match against Chelsea, where they conceded two set-piece goals. One of Chelsea’s centre-backs found the net, while another had a goal “stolen” on the line by Noni Madueke.
In contrast, Arsenal have been a dominant force from set pieces this season. The Gunners lead the league with 10 goals from dead-ball situations and have generated the highest xG from set pieces. They also rank among the top five teams for shots created from these opportunities.
A key figure in Arsenal’s set-piece success has been defender Gabriel. The centre-back has registered 18 shots this season, 14 of which have come from headers, and he has scored three times. Gabriel was unlucky not to find the net with a header in Arsenal’s recent clash against Spurs, further underlining his aerial threat.
- Best Bet: Arsenal -1AH at 1.8 with William Hill
- Best Bet: Gabriel to have a header at goal at 1.91 with Betfair
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
This weekend’s clash between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest brings together two sides that have performed well by underlying metrics. Bournemouth sit 4th for xPTS, while Forest are 7th, hinting at a slight overachievement from the visitors. Bournemouth also rank 5th in xG ratio, with Forest close behind in 8th, underscoring the solid tactical foundations of both teams.
Bournemouth’s home form reflects their defensive strength, with matches at the Vitality Stadium averaging just 1.90 goals per game. They have managed to keep four clean sheets in their ten home fixtures, scoring in eight of them. Their matches tend to be low-scoring affairs, with six of their ten home games going under 2.5 goals and only one match exceeding 3.5 goals.
Nottingham Forest, by contrast, have seen slightly more goal action, with their matches averaging 2.50 goals this season. On the road, Forest have been impressive, boasting a strong record of W7-D2-L2. They have kept five clean sheets in 11 away matches, including clean sheets in their last three on the road. Forest’s defensive stability is further highlighted by their metrics over the last eight matches, where they have conceded just 0.64 xGA from open play and allowed only three big chances—the second-best in the league during this period.
Both teams have shown a tendency for discipline-heavy encounters, making the cards market an intriguing angle for bettors. Bournemouth’s home games average 5.30 cards per match, with the hosts picking up at least two cards in eight of their ten games. Their opponents have averaged 3.20 cards per game, collecting two or more cards in nine of ten matches. Over 4.5 total cards have landed in eight of Bournemouth’s ten home fixtures, with both teams collecting at least two cards in seven of those games.
Forest’s away games are even more card-heavy, averaging a whopping 6.45 cards per match. The visitors have received two or more cards in ten of their eleven away fixtures. Both teams have been carded at least once in ten of Forest’s eleven away games, with both collecting two or more cards in eight matches. Forest themselves average 3.36 cards per game on the road, while their hosts average 3.06, creating a recipe for a busy day for the referee.
Craig Pawson, who will officiate the match, is no stranger to dishing out cards. He averages 4.69 cards per match across his 13 Premier League games this season. Both teams have been carded in ten of his 13 matches, with over 3.5 cards landing in eight and over 4.5 cards in seven. In nine of his matches, both teams have received at least one card, while over 3.5 total cards have also been shown.
- Best Bet: Both teams to receive a card, over 3.5 match cards and under 4 match goals at 1.86 with Bet365
Man City vs Chelsea
Manchester City fans were in full voice as they chanted “City are back” during their emphatic 6-0 victory over Ipswich. However, questions remain about whether City have truly rediscovered their form. Recent wins have come against struggling opposition—Leicester, the second-worst side in the league, a West Ham team under Julen Lopetegui just before his sacking, a League Two Salford in the FA Cup, and Ipswich, who collapsed after conceding the opening goal despite being competitive early on.
City’s inconsistencies were evident in their 2-2 draw with Brentford, where they threw away a 2-0 lead, and their defeat to PSG in the Champions League. Against PSG, City were thoroughly outplayed, losing the xG battle 2.81 to 1.76, while conceding 26 shots, nine on target, eight big chances, and 20 shots inside the box. Between Erling Haaland’s 53rd-minute goal and Ilkay Gundogan’s shot in the 86th minute, PSG managed an incredible 16 shots.
At home this season, City have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with only Nottingham Forest and Southampton failing to score at the Etihad. Over their last 13 matches in all competitions, City’s record reads W4-D3-L6. They rank 9th for xPTS over their last eight matches, conceding an average of 1.18 xGA, and in that same period, they have allowed seven big chances—eight teams have conceded fewer. Overall, City sit 9th for home xPTS this season, with a concerning 1.38 xGA. To make matters worse, Ruben Dias is out injured again, further weakening their defence.
Chelsea, on the other hand, have been impressive on the road. They generate an average of 1.75 xG away from home, rank 5th for shots on target, 3rd for shots in the box, and 3rd for xG ratio. Over their last eight games, only Arsenal and Liverpool have created more big chances. Chelsea also boast the third-best away record in the league, having scored in nine of their 11 away matches this season.
City should be expected to score, as Chelsea have kept just three clean sheets on the road. However, Chelsea’s attacking metrics and ability to create chances make them a dangerous opponent, especially against a City side that has shown defensive frailties mainly in transition as they struggle without Rodri. This game has the potential to be a closely contested affair, with both sides likely to find the net, but the visitors look excellent value to score twice or more.
- Best Bet: Chelsea over 1.5 goals at 2.0 with Ladbrokes
Sunday
Tottenham vs Leicester
Back on November 23rd, Spurs secured an impressive 4-0 win over Manchester City at the Etihad. Since then, however, their form has taken a dramatic dip, with a record of W1-D2-L7, their only win coming against Southampton. Over these 10 games, Spurs have scored in eight, netting a total of 18 goals, but they have also conceded 22—an average of 4.0 goals per game.
At home, Spurs’ record is W4-D2-L5, but they have failed to win any of their last five home games and have kept just one clean sheet at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season. While they’ve scored in 10 of their 11 home matches, Ipswich and Wolves have both scored twice against them. Over the last four matches, Spurs rank 14th for xPTS, and over the last eight, they’ve averaged 2.12 xGA compared to 1.48 xG. No team has a higher xGA from set pieces or has conceded more big chances over this period.
Injuries have limited Spurs’ ability to rotate their squad, meaning most of the players who featured midweek in Europe will likely start again. With a crucial European fixture coming up, their focus may already be shifting, which could leave their defence vulnerable against Leicester.
Leicester, meanwhile, have been in dismal form, losing their last seven matches. Their overall record this season is W3-D5-L13, and they’ve failed to score in five of their last seven games. On the road, Leicester’s record is W1-D2-L7, but they’ve managed to score in 8 of their 10 away games, with their only blanks coming against Newcastle and Manchester United.
The Foxes are currently in turmoil, with fans showing discontent towards both the players and new manager Ruud van Nistelrooy. However, the pressure of the home crowd has been lifted when they play away, potentially giving them more freedom on the road. Over their last eight matches, Leicester rank 18th for xPTS, with an average of 1.92 xGA and just 0.87 xG. Defensively, only three teams have conceded more shots inside the box during this period.
Despite their struggles, a lively Jamie Vardy could exploit a tired Spurs defence with his trademark runs in behind.
Spurs average 8.36 corners per game at home and have won at least five in all 11 home matches this season. Leicester concede an average of 7.40 corners per game on the road and have allowed at least four corners in 9 of their 10 away matches, including five or more in 8 of those games. This suggests the corners market could offer value, with Spurs likely to dominate in this area.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score and Spurs over 3 corners at 1.72 with Bet365
Fulham vs Man Utd
The odds for Fulham draw no bet have shifted, so we need to get creative to craft a pro-Fulham angle. A solid starting point is Fulham to either win or draw, as they have been strong at home this season. Fulham’s home record stands at W4-D5-L2, with their last four matches at Craven Cottage ending in draws, including a 1-1 result against Arsenal. They have also secured impressive wins against Newcastle and Brighton at home.
Looking at the data, Fulham rank 4th for xPTS over their last four matches and 5th over their last eight. At home this season, they are 8th for xPTS and 3rd overall, highlighting their quality. This is a well-organized Fulham side capable of causing Manchester United significant problems.
United’s away form has been poor, with just two wins this season: a 3-0 victory over bottom-of-the-table Southampton and a fortunate smash-and-grab win against a lacklustre Manchester City. Their away record is W2-D4-L4, scoring just 10 goals.
Over their last four matches, United rank 12th for xPTS, conceding an average of 1.63 xGA per game. They have won just twice in their last nine matches and failed to score in four of them. United have not kept a clean sheet in their last nine games, which brings us to the next part of the bet: Fulham to score.
Fulham have failed to score just once at home this season—a 1-0 loss to Southampton, where they dominated play. They average 1.64 goals per game at Craven Cottage, while United concede an average of 1.2 goals per game on the road. United have managed just three clean sheets away from home this season (against Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, and Southampton) but have conceded two goals to Wolves, two to Brighton, two to West Ham, and even allowed Ipswich to score.
Under their new manager, United’s away defensive record is W2-D6-L6, conceding 20 goals at an average of 1.82 per game. Fulham’s attack, spearheaded by creative players and physical presence, should have no trouble finding the net.
The final angle focuses on Fulham’s ability to generate shots. At home, they average 14.18 shots per game and have hit 11 or more in seven of their 11 home matches. The only exceptions were against Arsenal (2 shots), Brighton (6 shots), Wolves (10 shots), and Aston Villa (10 shots). In contrast, Fulham have recorded:
18 shots vs. Leicester, 21 vs West Ham, 22 vs Newcastle, 26 vs Brentford, 15 vs Southampton, 15 vs Ipswich, 11 vs Bournemouth.
Meanwhile, United’s defence is allowing 11.3 shots per game on the road. Ipswich managed 11 shots at home against United, Arsenal 14, Man City 10, Liverpool 19, and Wolves 7. Given Fulham’s superior attacking capabilities compared to Wolves, they are well-positioned to reach or exceed the 10.5 shots mark.
- Best Bet: Fulham to score, Fulham to take over 10.5 shots, Fulham win or draw at 1.83 with Bet365
Crystal Palace vs Brentford
Crystal Palace have averaged 14 shots per game at Selhurst Park this season, with a home record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses. They have lost just once in their last 13 games at home, managing 13+ shots in 8 of those 13 matches. Notably, they failed to reach that mark against tougher opponents like Manchester City and Liverpool. Palace have also found the net in 10 of their last 11 games.
Brentford, meanwhile, have struggled defensively on the road, conceding an average of 21.4 shots per game the most in the Premier League. They also allow the highest number of shots on target away from home and have the fourth-highest xGA on the road, behind only the three teams in the relegation zone. Brentford have conceded 18 or more shots in 10 of their 11 away games, with Southampton being the only exception (8 shots). Additionally, they have conceded in 7 of their last 10 away matches, including games against Southampton, Everton, and Brighton.
Ismaila Sarr has been a key player for Crystal Palace this season. In 15 starts, he has recorded 29 shots, with 19 of those on target. His performances at Selhurst Park have been particularly impressive, registering 14 shots and nine on target in eight home starts. Notably, Sarr has only failed to take a shot in one of those games and has missed hitting the target in just two of his eight home appearances.
- Best Bet: Crystal Palace double chance, Crystal Palace over 0.5 goals & 14+ shots at 1.78 with BetVictor
- Ismaila Sarr over 0.5 shots on target at 1.80 with Bet365
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