Man City vs Newcastle
Manchester City’s focus will undoubtedly be on their midweek Champions League second leg against Real Madrid. After a below-par performance in the first leg, where tactical lapses and individual errors proved costly, City find themselves with no realistic chance of winning the Premier League. With the Champions League as their only shot at major silverware this season, Pep Guardiola is likely to rest key players ahead of the crucial European tie.
Newcastle, meanwhile, come into this game in strong away form with a record of W6-D3-L3, having scored in 11 of their 12 away matches. Given their attacking output and City’s tendency to rotate their defence before big European fixtures, both teams finding the net looks very likely. Despite a rocky few months City have scored in 22 of their 24 Premier League games this term.
Newcastle rank 6th for away xPTS, while City surprisingly sit 8th for home xPTS, which highlights potential vulnerabilities. With City’s attention elsewhere, Newcastle could capitalise on a weakened line up and are well-positioned to challenge for all three points at the Etihad.
Alexander Isak is currently the most in-form player in the Premier League for goals, with 17 goals in 22 league appearances. He has taken 63 shots, with 30 on target, and has registered at least one shot on target in 15 matches. More recently, Isak has been even more consistent, managing at least one shot on target in 9 of his last 11 Premier League games. Given his current form and City’s possible defensive rotation, backing Isak to register a shot on target looks like an excellent angle for this game.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score, over 2 goals and Isak over 0.5 shots on target at 2.05 with Bet365
Southampton vs Bournemouth
Southampton’s home form this season has been disastrous, with a record of W1-D1-L9, scoring just eight goals while conceding 30—an average of 2.73 goals conceded per home match. They have kept just one clean sheet, a fortunate 1-0 win over Everton, and the only four points they’ve picked up at home have come in that match and a draw against Ipswich. Southampton have conceded two or more goals in seven of their 11 home games.
Recent form is equally poor. Over the last four matches, they rank bottom for xPTS, while over the last eight games, they sit 19th, with an xGA of 2.05 and an xG of just 0.79. No side in the Premier League has a worse non-penalty xG ratio than Southampton.
They face a Bournemouth team in excellent form, having lost just six games all season. Bournemouth’s away record is W5-D4-L3, with defeats coming at Liverpool, Brentford, and a surprising 1-0 loss to Leicester, despite dominating that match. Against teams 13th and below, Bournemouth’s record is impressive at W7-D1-L1. Despite dealing with numerous injuries, Bournemouth should still have far too much for the Premier League’s worst side.
Bournemouth to win, Bournemouth to score at least two goals, and over three Bournemouth corners looks like a strong bet. Southampton have conceded an average of 6.64 corners per home game, allowing four or more in nine of 11 home matches. They have also conceded at least two corners in all 11 home games, with only Brentford and West Ham failing to win at least five corners.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, average 6.08 corners on the road and have won at least four corners in 10 of 12 away matches. The only teams to stop them from reaching that mark are Chelsea and Manchester United. Given Southampton’s defensive vulnerabilities and Bournemouth’s consistency, this combination provides strong value.
- Best Bet: Bournemouth to win, Bournemouth to score over 1 goal and Bournemouth over 3 corners at 1.86 with Bet365
Aston Villa vs Ipswich Town
Ipswich travel to Villa Park on Saturday in what promises to be a challenging game for the Tractor Boys. Aston Villa have scored in all but two home games this season, keeping only two clean sheets which will give Ipswich hope of getting on the score sheet. Their home record stands at W6-D5-L1, with their only failure to score coming in a 0-0 draw with Manchester United back in October and a 2-0 loss to Arsenal in their opening home fixture. In their last eight home matches, Villa have averaged 1.75 goals per game.
Ipswich, on the other hand, have struggled defensively on the road, conceding an average of 2.09 goals per away game and keeping just one clean sheet—a 0-0 draw with Brighton in mid-September. They rank bottom for away xPTS and xG ratio, with an xGA of 1.83 per game. Only Leicester have conceded more shots on target away from home than Ipswich, making Villa to score an excellent bet.
Liam Delap is set to start up front for Ipswich. This season, he has committed 49 fouls in 23 games, making at least one foul in 21 of those matches. Given that he will likely be isolated as Villa dominate possession, frustration could lead to more fouls. Backing Delap to make at least one foul is a smart addition to any bet builder.
Julio Enciso has recently signed for Ipswich and has shown a clear intent to shoot at every opportunity. In his first start for Ipswich, he registered six shots and two on target. Across his three starts this season for Brighton and Ipswich, he has taken 15 shots. In total, across 394 minutes in 14 appearances, he has recorded 26 shots, with 13 on target.
Adding Enciso to have at least two shots to this bet boosts the odds to 1.8, making it an attractive option given his shooting volume.
- Best Bet: Aston Villa 1+ goal, Liam Delap to commit 1+ fouls and Julio Enciso to have 2+ shots at 1.80 with Skybet
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