Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Bournemouth have been one of the seasons surprise packages, delivering impressive performances, particularly at home. They secured a significant away win at Newcastle before dismantling Nottingham Forest, a side known for its defensive resilience. At the Vitality Stadium, the Cherries have already beaten Arsenal, Manchester City, Forest, and Everton, with their only home defeats coming against Chelsea and Brighton. A key factor in their success has been their attacking output, with their shot volume at home remaining consistently high throughout the campaign.
Over their last four matches, Bournemouth rank fourth for expected points (xPTS) and expected goals (XG) ratio, while across the season, they sit sixth for home xPTS. These numbers highlight their ability to maintain sustained attacking pressure, which will be crucial as they prepare to face Liverpool, a team that has been dominant this season but not entirely flawless defensively on the road.
Liverpools season has been nothing short of outstanding, boasting a record of 27 wins, five draws, and just three losses across all competitions. However, their away defensive performances have shown some vulnerabilities. They have conceded two or more goals in four of their 11 away matches, keeping just five clean sheets. Both Tottenham and Newcastle managed to put three past them, while even Southampton, a side struggling for consistency, found the net twice.
A noticeable trend in Liverpools defensive record away from home is their increasing number of shots on target conceded. In their first five away matches, they allowed just 3.2 shots on target per game, but over the last six, that number has risen to 4.17. This includes a misleadingly low figure due to West Ham failing to register a single shot on target in a heavy defeat.
Bournemouths home shooting numbers suggest they are well-positioned to register 12 or more shots against Liverpool. They have averaged 17.82 shots per game at the Vitality Stadium and have taken at least 12 shots in all 11 home matches. Against top opposition, they recorded 13 against Arsenal, 16 against Nottingham Forest, 12 against Manchester City, and 19 against Chelsea. Even in a 3-0 loss at Anfield, they registered 19 shots. While Liverpool have only conceded 12 or more shots in one away game this season, when Newcastle managed 17, Brentford still came close with 11. Given Bournemouths consistency in attack, they are in a strong position to once again surpass the 12-shot mark.
- Best Bet: Bournemouth over 11.5 shots at 2.0 with Bet365
Wolves vs Aston Villa
Ollie Watkins is set to lead the line for Aston Villa, with fellow striker Jhon Duran expected to complete a move to Saudi Arabia. Watkins has been heavily involved this season, committing 22 fouls across 23 appearances. In his 19 starts, he has made 19 fouls, registering at least one in 15 of those matches, including one in the reverse fixture against Wolves.
Aston Villa have been one of the more aggressive sides in the league, with only three teams committing more fouls this season. Fatigue could also be a factor, as their small squad has endured a demanding campaign, balancing domestic competition with Champions League football. They also faced a tough midweek clash against Celtic, which may leave them vulnerable heading into this fixture.
Wolves, meanwhile, will be highly motivated, needing three points to climb out of the relegation zone. Facing a local rival at home, they are likely to bring intensity to the match, which could contribute to a high foul count and a physical battle.
Historically, this fixture has been a fiery contest, with the last seven meetings averaging 6.43 cards per game. Every one of those encounters has produced at least four bookings. Villas away matches this season have averaged 4.64 cards, with six of their 11 away games seeing at least four, and 10 of 11 featuring a minimum of three. Wolves home matches have been even more card-heavy, averaging 4.82 per game, with eight of 11 producing at least four cards and all 11 seeing a minimum of three.
Given the nature of this fixture, Villas physicality, and Wolves desperation for points, this game is shaping up to be another hard-fought, card-heavy contest.
- Best Bet: Ollie Watkins to commit 1+ fouls and over 3.5 match cards at 2.01 with Paddy
Newcastle vs Fulham
Newcastle have kept five clean sheets at home this season, but three of those have come against teams currently sitting in the bottom four, suggesting their defensive record at St. James Park is somewhat inflated. However, their attacking output has been strong, scoring in 10 of their 11 home matches. Six of those 11 games have seen over 2.5 goals, highlighting their ability to contribute to high-scoring affairs. Over their last eight matches, Newcastle have averaged 2.02 expected goals (xG) per game while conceding 1.24 expected goals against (xGA), showing both their attacking threat and defensive vulnerability. Their strong form is reflected in their ranking of fourth for expected points (xPTS) over that period.
Fulham, meanwhile, have been one of the leagues most consistent performers, ranking third for xPTS across the season. They have averaged 1.45 xG per game and have been reliable in front of goal, scoring in 10 of their 11 away matches. However, their defensive frailties on the road are evident, managing just three clean sheets. Seven of their 11 away fixtures have seen both teams find the net, and only five teams in the league have created more chances over the last eight games.
With Newcastles strong attacking record at home and Fulhams tendency to both score and concede on the road, this matchup is well set for goals. Both teams have been productive in attack while showing defensive vulnerabilities, making it likely that both will get on the scoresheet. Given the patterns in their recent games and underlying metrics, a match featuring at least three goals looks highly probable.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score at 2.0 with BoyleSports
Ipswich Town vs Southampton
Ipswich should approach this game as they did in the Championship, taking the game to a Southampton side that is all but set for a return to the second tier. The Saints have struggled badly this season, particularly away from home, where they have failed to win a single match, recording a dismal W0-D2-L10 record. Defensively, they have been vulnerable on their travels, conceding an average of 1.92 goals per game and managing just one clean sheet. They have also allowed an average of 17.25 shots per game on the road, highlighting their defensive frailties.
Brightons Julio Enciso has had his progress disrupted by injury, but last season, in just five starts, he registered 18 shots with six on target. During that period, he was also heavily involved in duels, committing six fouls but winning eight, drawing at least one foul in every game. This season, in his two starts for Brighton, he has continued to be a shooting threat, taking nine shots with four on target. He has also won three fouls across those two starts, drawing at least one in both games. Enciso came on as a late substitute for Ipswich against Liverpool, playing just 12 minutes but still making one foul, which resulted in a booking, while also being fouled himself.
With both teams desperate for points in a crucial relegation battle, the intensity of this fixture is expected to be high. Ipswich have been no strangers to physical contests, collecting 20 or more booking points in nine of their 12 home matches. Their games at Portman Road have averaged 39.59 booking points. Southampton, meanwhile, have been similarly ill-disciplined, picking up 20+ booking points in 11 of their 12 away matches. Their away games have averaged 47.92 booking points, with all 12 producing at least 30.
Michael Oliver is the referee for this clash, and his record suggests a card-heavy encounter. He averages 53.24 booking points per game, and 15 of his 17 Premier League matches this season have seen at least 30 booking points. With both teams battling for survival, expect a competitive and physical contest with plenty of disciplinary action.
- Best Bet: Enciso 2+ shots, Enciso to win 1+ fouls, 30+ match booking points at 1.91 with Skybet
Brentford vs Spurs
Brentford look well-placed to get a result against a struggling Tottenham side that has been one of the worst-performing teams in the league over the last month. Over the last four matches, Spurs rank 18th for xPTS, with only Ipswich and Southampton below them. Their non-penalty xG numbers are equally concerning, as they rank 18th while conceding an average of 2.05 npxGA per game during this period.
In contrast, Brentford have shown far greater stability and consistency. Over the same four-game stretch, they rank 6th for xPTS and 8th in npxG, generating 1.69 xG per match while conceding 1.75 npxGA.
This fixture should produce goals, as Brentford’s home games have averaged 4.33 goals per match. Defensively, they have struggled to keep opponents out, failing to record a single clean sheet in 12 home matches. However, they have remained strong going forward, scoring two or more goals in eight of those games. Only Liverpool and Nottingham Forest have managed to prevent Brentford from scoring at home.
Tottenham’s form has been dreadful, with just one win in their last 11 matches, a narrow victory over bottom-placed Southampton. Injuries continue to plague the squad, and their defensive issues remain a concern. Despite their struggles, Spurs still carry an attacking threat, making a Both Teams to Score (BTTS) bet a strong option.
Yoane Wissa is also an excellent candidate for a shot on target in this fixture. He has recorded 22 shots on target in 20 games this season, with 14 of those coming at home. He has registered a shot on target in eight of his ten home appearances and has been particularly sharp in recent weeks, landing a shot on target in each of his last four matches, totalling eight during that stretch.
Tottenham’s defensive vulnerabilities should give Wissa plenty of opportunities. They have conceded an average of 4.27 shots on target per away match this season, a figure that has risen to 4.80 over their last five away games. Even Everton managed six shots on target against them recently. Brentford, on the other hand, have averaged 6.08 shots on target per home match, further reinforcing the likelihood of Wissa testing the Spurs goalkeeper.
Given Brentford’s attacking momentum and Tottenham’s defensive struggles, an open, high-energy game is expected.
- Best Bet: Both Teams to Score and Wissa over 0.5 shots on target at 1.80 with Bet365
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