Leicester vs Brentford
Brentford have dominated the leagues bottom four, boasting an unbeaten record (W6-D1-L0). They have already beaten 16th-placed West Ham away (1-0) and hammered Southampton on the road (5-0). While they have struggled against stronger opposition, they have consistently outclassed weaker sides. Their away record has been impacted by facing six of the top 10 on the road, but they still rank 12th for expected points (xPTS) over the last eight games.
Leicester, on the other hand, have been dreadful. The appointment of Ruud van Nistelrooy has done little to halt their slide towards the Championship. His tenure so far reads W2-D1-L9, and their last 10 games have yielded just one win (W1-D0-L9), with only nine goals scored while conceding an average of 2.5 per match. They rank 18th in xPTS over the last eight games.
A simple comparison of the attacking options highlights the gulf in quality. Brentford can call on Wissa, Schade, Damsgaard, and Mbeumo, while Leicester rely on Vardy, Ayew, Reid, and El Khannouss, showing the stark difference in squad depth and talent.
- Best Bet: Brentford win at 1.98 with Quinn Bet
Bournemouth vs Wolves
Bournemouth have been one of the most dangerous attacking sides at home this season, and all indicators suggest they will create plenty of chances against Wolves. Their home record of six wins, three draws, and three losses highlights their solid performances at the Vitality Stadium. They have scored in nine of their 12 home games, averaging 1.42 goals per match.
They rank sixth in home expected points and seventh in overall expected points over the last eight games, showing consistency. At home, they generate 1.93 expected goals per game, which indicates their ability to create high-quality chances. They also rank third in the league for shots on target and shots inside the box when playing at home. On average, they produce 17.5 shots per game at the Vitality Stadium, with 5.88 hitting the target, putting them among the most threatening attacking sides in the league.
Wolves, on the other hand, have struggled defensively away from home, with just two wins in 13 games, alongside three draws and eight losses. They have conceded a high number of shots on target, with only the bottom three teams, West Ham, and Brentford allowing more. Recent performances have further exposed their defensive issues, with Chelsea registering 19 shots against them and Newcastle managing 17. Given Bournemouth’s attacking firepower at home and Wolves vulnerabilities on the road, it is highly likely that the hosts will score at least twice.
Dango Ouattara has become a key figure in Bournemouth’s attack, particularly in recent matches, as injuries have pushed him into a more advanced role. His shooting numbers have been strong throughout the season, taking 41 shots with 15 on target in 22 appearances. His home numbers are even better, with 26 shots in 10 matches at the Vitality Stadium. When he starts, his output increases significantly, recording 30 shots in 13 starts. His home starts have been particularly productive, with 20 shots in just seven games. Notably, he has managed three or more shots in four of those seven home starts, highlighting his willingness to test the goalkeeper.
With Bournemouth’s aggressive attacking approach and Wolves’s defensive frailties, Ouattara should have plenty of opportunities to shoot. Given his increased involvement in attack, he is highly likely to register at least two shots in this match.
- Best Bet: Bournemouth to score over 1 goal and Dango Ouattara to have over 1.5 shots at 1.80 with Bet365
Southampton vs Brighton
Southampton have endured a dreadful home campaign (W1-D1-L10), netting just nine times while conceding an average of 2.75 goals per game. They have allowed 2+ goals in eight of their 12 home matches and managed just one clean sheet. On track for the lowest points total in Premier League history, their struggles show no sign of easing.
Over the last eight games, they rank 19th for xPTS and have an alarming 2.24 xGA per game.
Brighton arrive in strong form after consecutive wins over Chelsea in both the league and FA Cup. Their record against bottom-half teams is solid (W5-D6-L2), and they’ve only failed to score once away all season. With key players returning, they should have too much for Southampton.
Sulemana has been a key attacking outlet for Southampton, registering 10 shots in his last three starts. With their dire league position, Southampton have no choice but to take the game to Brighton, as they desperately need three points.
Since the managerial change, they have adopted a more attacking approach and appear more dynamic going forward. However, despite showing improvement, results remain a struggle, with their recent win over Ipswich being a rare bright spot. While they look more competitive, their defensive vulnerabilities and inability to turn performances into points continue to be a major concern.
- Best Bet: Brighton to win and Sulemana over 0.5 shots at 1.80 with Bet365
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Aston Villa have been solid at home this season (W6-D7-L1), but defensive issues persist, having conceded in 13 of their 14 home matches. Their games at Villa Park tend to be high-scoring, with both teams finding the net in 11 of those fixtures, and over 2.5 goals landing in 7.
Chelsea’s away form has been inconsistent, with a record of W6-D3-L4, but their matches are often goal-heavy. They’ve conceded in 10 of their 13 away games but have also scored in the same number. Their away fixtures average 3.34 goals per game, with over 2.5 goals landing in 8.
With both teams struggling defensively but possessing plenty of attacking firepower, this game is set up for goals. Villa’s leaky backline and Chelsea’s similar issues on the road suggest both sides are likely to score. Given the high goal averages in their matches, the chances of at least three goals being scored are strong.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with William Hill
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest
Newcastle’s home form has been inconsistent this season (W6-D2-L4), and their recent struggles are evident, with back-to-back home defeats to Bournemouth and Fulham. They have also lost three of their last four Premier League matches. While they have scored in 10 of their 12 home games, defensive issues remain, having conceded in 7. They currently rank 13th for home expected points (xPTS), highlighting their vulnerability.
Nottingham Forest have been exceeding expectations on the road, ranking 9th in away xPTS but sitting 3rd in the actual away table. However, their form has dipped, with two consecutive away defeats. Their overall away record of W7-D2-L4 is impressive, though against top-half sides, they have struggled (W1-D2-L4).
Forest should be expected to score in this match. They have found the net in 10 of their 13 away games, showing attacking consistency on the road. With Newcastle’s defensive weaknesses and poor recent form, Forest have a strong chance of capitalising and getting on the scoresheet.
Morgan Gibbs-White has been a consistent shooter this season, recording 35 shots in 21 games, with at least one attempt in 19 of those matches. Given Newcastle’s defensive vulnerabilities at home—conceding an average of 13.42 shots per game, with Fulham recently registering 15 and Bournemouth 19—he is well-positioned to test the keeper again. Nottingham Forest also average 12.0 shots per game on the road, further increasing the likelihood of Gibbs-White having at least one attempt.
Discipline is also expected to play a role, with referee Jared Gillett averaging 4.17 cards per game in the Premier League this season. He has issued a card to each team in 5 of his 7 matches. Newcastle’s home fixtures have been particularly heated, averaging 5.92 cards per game, with both sides receiving at least one in 10 of 12 matches. In fact, both teams have collected 2+ cards in 8 of 12.
Forest’s away matches also tend to be feisty, averaging 5.69 cards per game. They have received at least one card in 12 of their 13 away matches and at least two in 10, averaging 2.92 per 90 minutes. With both teams fighting for European places—Forest aiming for a Champions League spot and Newcastle hoping to move level with Manchester City—this game is set up for an intense battle, making it highly likely that each team picks up at least one booking.
- Best Bet: Nottingham Forest over 0 goals, Morgan Gibbs White over 0.5 shots & both teams to receive a card each at 1.86 with Bet365
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