Port Vale vs Morecambe
Play-off chasing Port Vale welcome relegation-threatened Morecambe to Vale Park this weekend, with the hosts looking to strengthen their grip on a top-seven spot. Vale currently sit 6th, but with just four points separating them from 8th-placed Crewe, there’s little margin for error.
At home, Port Vale have been rock-solid — their W9-D6-L2 record backed by just 14 goals conceded, the fourth-best home defensive record in the division. They have won five of their last six at home, with the only exception being a 0-0 draw against Harrogate, a game they dominated with 62% possession and a 0.89–0.30 xG edge.
Across their last eight home games, Vale have gone W5-D3-L0, conceding just four times. They have also been efficient at keeping things tight, especially against weaker opposition — keeping five clean sheets in 10 home games against bottom-half sides.
Morecambe, meanwhile, are in freefall. They’ve lost their last seven away games, scoring just two goals in that run. Overall, their away record is a grim W4-D2-L13, and against sides 13th and above on the road, it’s even worse: W0-D0-L9, with zero goals scored.
The straight home win is too short to back on its own, but Port Vale to win & under 4.5 goals looks a smart angle. 13 of Morecambe’s 13 away defeats have averaged just 1.77 total goals, with only three goals scored in those games. Meanwhile, seven of Vale’s nine home wins have stayed under 4.5.
This looks like a textbook grind-it-out home win — and the value lies in backing Vale to get the job done without fireworks.
- Best Bet: Port Vale to win & under 4.5 goals at 1.80 with Sky Bet
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