Aston Villa come into this FA Cup clash well-rested following their 2-0 defeat to Wolves, while Tottenham arrive after a bruising 4-0 midweek loss to Liverpool in the League Cup semi-final, extending their poor form under Ange Postecoglou. Spurs have won just six of their last 20 matches in all competitions, highlighting their inconsistency.
Adding to their troubles, Tottenham’s defensive issues persist, with Ben Davies deployed at centre-back and Archie Gray at right-back against Liverpool. With Micky van de Ven unlikely to return, their backline could remain the same, though Pedro Porro may return at full-back to provide some stability.
Meanwhile, Villa continue to thrive under Unai Emery, turning Villa Park into a fortress. Since taking charge, Emery has lost just seven of 44 Premier League home matches and only 12 of 60 games in all competitions. Four of those losses came in his first seven games, meaning that in his last 53 matches, he has suffered just eight defeats—an outstanding record. Over the last two seasons when facing bottom half sides at home their record is W14-D6-L0.
Villa also bolstered their squad late in the transfer window, signing Marcus Rashford from Manchester United, Marco Asensio from PSG, and Axel Disasi from Chelsea. However, Disasi is cup-tied, having played for Chelsea in round three.
Although this is a cup match, both teams’ Premier League form provides key insights. Spurs rank 18th in expected points over their last four matches, conceding an average of 1.84 xGA over their last eight. Villa have also had defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 1.71 non-penalty xGA in the same period. Given that Spurs have scored in nine of their 12 away matches and Villa have conceded in 10 of their 12 home games, both teams to score looks like a strong bet.
However, Villa remain the more reliable pick to win. Tottenham have won just four away league matches this season, one of which came against bottom-placed Southampton. For those looking for extra value, Villa to win and both teams to score is a solid option, but the safer bet is backing a home victory outright.
- Best Bet: Aston Villa to win at 1.77 with Quinn Bet
Coventry vs Ipswich
Ipswich have endured a difficult season in the Premier League and look likely to return to the Championship, particularly after last weekend’s damaging 2-1 home defeat to Southampton. However, they were unfortunate not to take something from that game, as they won the xG battle 1.84 to 0.91, outshooting Southampton 15 to nine, and recording six shots on target to the Saints’ four. Ultimately, wasteful finishing cost them the result.
Coventry have improved under Frank Lampard, holding a W7-D3-L4 record since his arrival. At home, they have suffered just one defeat in their last seven matches, a 2-0 loss to Leeds United in midweek. However, Lampard’s home fixture list has been kind, as the toughest side Coventry have faced under his tenure was 9th-placed Bristol City, with their other home opponents sitting 24th, 21st, 19th, 14th, and 12th in the table.
Their 1-0 victory over Bristol City earlier this season was also slightly fortunate, as Coventry won the xG battle by a slim margin (0.91 to 0.76), managing just four shots on target, with their winning goal having an xG of just 0.12.
This match presents a quick turnaround for Coventry, having played in midweek, with another tough fixture against Queens Park Rangers coming up on Tuesday. In contrast, Ipswich have had a full week of rest both leading into this game and before their next Premier League fixture against Aston Villa next Saturday.
Last season, Ipswich won both meetings between these sides in the Championship, and while they have struggled in the top flight, their squad has been strengthened since promotion. Given their low confidence after the Southampton loss, Ipswich cannot afford to crash out to a Championship side, so Kieran McKenna is expected to field a strong line-up, even if some rotations are made.
With a sell-out away following of 5,000 fans behind them, Ipswich should have the quality and motivation to edge this contest and progress to round five.
- Best Bet: Ipswich -0.25AH at 2.01 with Bet365
Blackburn vs Wolves
Blackburn are currently 6th in the Championship but showing signs of decline. They have won only two of their last 11 games, with those victories coming against Portsmouth and Preston. After a strong start to the season, collecting 37 points from the first 20 games, they have managed just 8 points from their last 11 matches. Defensively, they have conceded 35 goals so far which is comparable to Derby, who sit 22nd and have conceded 42. At home, Blackburn have kept seven clean sheets but have also failed to score in six games, suggesting they often struggle in tight, low-scoring contests. Against top-eight opposition, their record stands at two wins, five draws, and two losses, which is not terrible but also far from dominant. With their eyes likely focused on the Championship promotion race, there is a good chance they will rotate their squad for this cup game.
Wolves, meanwhile, have had a tough time in the Premier League, but they fielded a strong side in the third round of the FA Cup, where they defeated Bristol City 2-1. It was a solid performance, reflected in the xG stats: 2.14 for Wolves compared to 0.29 for Bristol City. Wolves took 12 shots to Bristol City six and hit the woodwork three times. Manager Vitor Pereira has spoken about using these cup games to help his players adapt to his tactical approach, which suggests he might opt for another strong lineup. Since Wolves don’t have a Premier League game for another week, there is little reason for them to rotate heavily. As we have seen over the weekend, even rotated Premier League sides tend to outperform Championship teams due to the significant gap in quality.
Wolves are likely to take this game seriously, especially with Pereira looking to build momentum and tactical cohesion. Blackburns recent struggles, coupled with possible squad rotation, leave them vulnerable.
- Best Bet: Wolves win at 1.76 with QuinnBet
Comments (0)