Birmingham vs Stevenage
Birmingham City’s return to the Championship is all but secured, and another three points at St. Andrew’s against Stevenage looks like a formality. Sitting 11 points clear of third-placed Wrexham with a game in hand, the Blues’ promotion charge has been built on a rock-solid defence, boasting a formidable record of W24-D7-L3. At home, they have been near flawless, winning 15 of their 18 matches and conceding only seven goals all season.
A deeper dive into their home form highlights just how dominant they have been defensively. Five of those seven goals were conceded in their first four home games, but since then, Birmingham have let in just two goals across their last 14 outings at St. Andrew’s, keeping 12 clean sheets in their last 13 League One fixtures. Over the past 12 matches, they rank second for expected points (xPTS) and first for xG ratio at home, while allowing just 0.55 xGA per game – the best defensive record in the division. They also concede the fewest shots in the box per home game (2.73), further reinforcing how difficult they are to break down.
That defensive stability has naturally led to low-scoring games, particularly in their home wins. Just two of their 15 victories at St. Andrew’s this season have featured over 3.5 goals, while 10 of those 15 wins have stayed under 2.5 goals.
Stevenage arrive with an underwhelming away record of five wins, five draws, and six defeats, but their biggest issue has been scoring goals on the road. No League One side has netted fewer away goals than their total of just 10 in 16 matches, and their fixtures have averaged only 1.56 goals per game. If you exclude their 3-2 win at Wrexham, that figure drops to just 1.33. Both teams have scored in only three of their 16 away matches, while Steve Evans’ side has failed to find the net entirely in eight of those outings.
Their underlying attacking metrics paint an even bleaker picture. Over their last eight matches, Stevenage rank 16th for xPTS, averaging just 0.98 non-penalty xG per game and a mere 0.63 xG from open play. Only two sides in the league have created fewer big chances during this period, highlighting their struggles in front of goal.
With Birmingham’s elite defensive numbers and Stevenage’s attacking woes on the road, a home win looks highly likely. However, given the Blues’ tendency to control games without racking up high-scoring wins, under 3.5 goals at best odds of 1.88 looks the standout play.
- Best Bet: Birmingham win & under 3.5 goals at 1.88 with 888 Sport
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