Our best bets have delivered exceptional profits. Since early December, we’ve placed 51 bets, earning 17.77 units of profit—an impressive 35.5% ROI. February was another strong month, bringing a 19.6% return. While most of our bets have been in the Premier League, we have also covered a handful of FA Cup matches and one Championship game. This week, we’re refocusing on the Premier League, looking to maintain our strong form into March and beyond.
Brentford vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s defensive struggles away from home have been a consistent issue, with just eight clean sheets in their last 40 away matches across all competitions. This season, they rank 19th for away expected points and 10th for non-penalty xG ratio, highlighting their struggles on the road. Their away form has been poor, winning just four games all season—three of which came in their first four away fixtures. Since then, they have managed just one victory in their last nine away games, drawing once and conceding an average of 2.44 goals per match. Their defensive vulnerabilities are evident, having kept just one clean sheet in that nine-game stretch and conceding two or more goals in eight of those fixtures. Their only shutout on the road came in a narrow 1-0 win over Everton in mid-January.
Villa’s away matches have consistently delivered goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in 10 of their 13 away fixtures. Meanwhile, Brentford’s home games have been just as entertaining, averaging 4.0 goals per match. The Bees started the season impressively at the Gtech Community Stadium, winning seven of their first eight home matches. However, their recent form has taken a turn, as they have failed to win any of their last six home games. That poor run has largely been due to facing tough opposition, including losses to Arsenal, Liverpool, Nottingham Forest, and Tottenham, as well as draws against Manchester City and Everton.
Another concerning trend for Villa is their post-Champions League form. This season, their record after Champions League matches is just one win, three draws, and four defeats, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of those fixtures. Given their defensive frailties and Brentford’s attacking threat at home, both teams should find the net. However, Villa have improved with their January reinforcements and have only suffered two defeats in their last 10 Premier League matches. With neither side looking defensively secure, a high-scoring draw seems like the most likely outcome.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with William Hill
Man Utd vs Arsenal
Arsenals trip to Old Trafford has all the makings of a cagey, low-scoring encounters especially in the first half. Both teams have struggled to make an early impact this season, making a bet on a goalless first half highly appealing. However, taking the Under 1 First Half Goal Line bet is the most prudent approach, as it allows for a full refund of our stake if exactly one goal is scored in the opening 45 minutes.
Manchester United have been notoriously slow starters, managing just 11 first-half goals in the Premier League all season. Crucially, three of those came against Ipswich, two against Leicester, and two against Southampton meaning that in their other 23 fixtures, they have scored just four first-half goals while conceding 15. Their record at Old Trafford follows the same trend. They have scored only eight first-half goals at home, with half of them again coming against Ipswich and Leicester. In their remaining 12 home league games, they have found the net just four times before the break.
Arsenal are also struggling to find early breakthroughs, largely due to injuries in their attacking lineup. They have failed to score in the first half of their last four matches in all competitions and have managed just one first-half goal in their last four away Premier League games a single strike against Brighton. Over the season, they have scored before halftime in only nine of their away fixtures, reinforcing their slow-starting tendencies.
Given these stats, a 0-0 halftime scoreline looks like the most probable outcome. However, by backing Under 1 First Half Goal Line, we allow for some protection. If there is exactly one goal in the first half, our stake is fully refunded, reducing our risk while still giving us a strong chance of landing a winner if the first half ends goalless.
With both teams likely to approach this game cautiously, a low-scoring first half looks inevitable, and the Under 1 First Half Goal Line provides a smart betting angle with built-in insurance.
- Best Bet: Under 1 1st half goal line at 1.725 with Bet365
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town
Ipswich remain the only Premier League team without a win in 2025, having suffered six defeats in their last seven matches. Despite their struggles, they have consistently found the net in their last five games, showing they can still pose a threat going forward. However, their overall performances have been among the worst in the league, ranking 19th for expected points (xPTS) and non-penalty expected goals (xG) ratio, placing them alongside Southampton as one of the division’s poorest-performing sides.
Crystal Palace have also had their share of difficulties, particularly at home, where they have managed just three wins all season against Tottenham, Southampton, and Aston Villa. Defensively, they have been far from solid at Selhurst Park, conceding in 12 of their 14 home matches. This defensive frailty suggests Ipswich should have opportunities to score, especially given their ability to find the net even during a poor run of form.
Palace will also be without key attacking figure Jean-Philippe Mateta, which could make it harder for them to control the game and may allow Ipswich to capitalize on any defensive lapses. However, Palace remain a dangerous attacking side, and with players like Eberechi Eze and Ismaïla Sarr, they are more than capable of finding the net themselves. Given Palace’s defensive issues and Ipswich’s ability to score despite their struggles, both teams finding the net seems highly likely in what could be a closely contested encounter.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.83 with Unibet
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