Barca vs Benfica & Liverpool vs PSG
Two massive Champions League second legs take centre stage, with Barcelona holding a narrow 1-0 lead over Benfica and Liverpool and PSG locked in a finely poised tie after the Reds’ 1-0 win in Paris. With everything on the line, expect high-intensity battles where both teams should pick up a booking. We’ll see over 2 match cards, and at least one goal in each game.
Barcelona vs Benfica
The first leg saw five yellow cards and a red, with both teams picking up at least one booking. With Benfica needing to chase the game and Barcelona looking to protect their lead, expect another tense, physical battle.
Barcelona’s Champions League games this season have averaged 4.56 cards per match, though they have only received a booking in four of their nine matches. However, their opponents have been carded in all nine games, averaging 3.0 bookings per fixture. Given the pressure of a knockout tie, their discipline will be tested.
Benfica have been involved in even more heated contests, with their Champions League matches averaging 5.45 cards per game. Both teams have received at least one card in all 11 of Benfica’s Champions League fixtures, and their opponents have also averaged 3.0 bookings per match.
There’s a clear pattern when these sides meet. In their two clashes this season, both teams have been booked, with a total of 10 yellows and one red shown across the fixtures. With François Letexier officiating, cards seem inevitable. The French referee has taken charge of six Champions League games this season, averaging 6.0 cards per match, and crucially, has booked both teams in all six games.
On the goals front, Benfica will have no choice but to push forward at some stage, and Barcelona have been ruthless in attack, scoring in every Champions League game this season. Their matches have averaged 4.67 goals per game, so at least one goal looks inevitable.
Liverpool vs PSG
Liverpool’s 1-0 win in Paris wasn’t short on drama, but PSG will feel unlucky to have drawn a blank. They generated 1.78 xG, fired 27 shots, had 10 on target, and produced 11 efforts inside the box. With those numbers, it’s hard to see them failing to score again.
Liverpool’s home record makes goals even more likely. They have played 20 games at Anfield across all competitions this season, scoring in 19, with an average of 2.55 goals per game. Meanwhile, PSG have already conceded away to Bayern Munich and Arsenal in this season’s Champions League, proving they aren’t defensively invincible on the road.
The first leg saw both teams pick up a booking, and there’s good reason to expect similar here. Liverpool have been carded in 8 of their 9 Champions League matches this season, with their games averaging 4.67 bookings per match. The Reds themselves collect an average of 2.22 cards per game.
PSG have also been a regular feature in the referee’s notebook, receiving at least one card in 8 of their 11 Champions League games, with their matches averaging 3.18 cards per game. On the road, they have been booked in four of five away games, with the only exception coming in a 3-0 win over Salzburg, where the game was more controlled. Importantly, every one of PSG’s opponents in this season’s Champions League has received a booking, reinforcing the likelihood of both teams picking up at least one caution.
Romanian referee István Kovács isn’t afraid to get his cards out. Over his last seven Champions League matches, he has averaged 3.57 cards, with both teams receiving a booking in six of those seven games. Looking at a larger sample, his last 15 Champions League matches have averaged 4.93 cards, with both teams booked in 12 of those 15 games.
Best Bets for these two games
Both fixtures are set up for intensity, tactical fouls, and moments of frustration, which should translate into cards and goals. The numbers, referees, and match context all point to:
✅ Both teams to receive at least one booking
✅ Over 2 match cards in each game
✅ At least one goal in both matches
With everything on the line, expect drama, controversy, and a bit of Champions League chaos across these two heavyweight clashes.
- Best Bet: Both teams to receive a card, over 2 match cards & over 0 goals at 1.86 with Bet365
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