Ipswich Town vs Wolves
This is a must-win game for Ipswich. A victory over Wolves would move them within six points of their opponents and keep their hopes of survival alive. Anything less, and they’ll be left needing results against the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal, or Newcastle — a daunting task at the best of times.
Ipswich come into this on a high after a deserved win away at Bournemouth. Liam Delap looked back to his best, and the team produced two well-crafted goals. Julio Enciso was influential again, setting up the opener with a superb run and pass to Nathan Broadhead. Since joining on loan, Enciso has registered 6, 1, 4, 1, and 3 shots across his appearances. The only low returns came against Aston Villa, when he played just 16 minutes, and against a defensively solid Nottingham Forest. In games against Southampton, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth — sides more comparable to Wolves — he’s managed 2+ shots each time.
Defensively, Wolves have looked vulnerable away from home. They’re conceding 13.93 shots and 4.78 shots on target per game on the road, and in their last away match, Southampton registered 10 shots against them. Ipswich’s attacking output at home has been consistent, recording 11, 17, and 15 shots in their last three at Portman Road.
Given the stakes, this is likely to be a fiery encounter with cards expected. Ipswich home games average 3.67 cards, with the hosts picking up an average of 2.0 per game. They’ve received at least one card in 12 of 15 home matches, and both teams have been carded in 11. Wolves’ away games average 4.47 cards, with four or more shown in 9 of 15. Wolves themselves are collecting 2.13 cards per away match, receiving 2+ in 11 games. Interestingly, their opponents average 2.33 against them, with 12 of 15 teams picking up at least two cards.
Peter Bankes takes charge of this one. He’s averaged 3.94 cards across his 18 Premier League matches this season. While only half of those games have seen four or more cards, the context here suggests a feisty contest. If Ipswich fall behind, they’ll be staring relegation in the face. If they’re ahead late on, expect them to cling on through cynical fouls and time-wasting. The same applies to Wolves if they find themselves trying to protect a lead. With so much on the line, it’s hard to imagine this game finishing without a flurry of cards.
- Best Bet: 40+ booking points & Julio Ensico 2+ shots at 2.0 with Skybet
Leicester City vs Newcastle Utd
Leicester are in complete freefall. They’ve lost eight games in a row and haven’t scored in any of their last six. Since Ruud van Nistelrooy took charge, they’ve managed just nine goals in 17 matches. After picking up four points in his first two games, they’ve collapsed — winning just once in the next 15, losing the other 14, and scoring only four goals in that stretch. Two of those came in a shock win over Spurs. They’ve failed to find the net in 12 of those 16 matches, and 13 of their 14 defeats have come by a margin of two or more goals. Even their narrow 1-0 loss to Chelsea could have been worse — the Blues missed a penalty — and in the 2-1 defeat to Villa, Leicester produced just 0.41 xG from two shots on target.
Statistically, the outlook is just as grim. Over the last 12 matches, they rank 19th for expected points and have created just a single big chance in their last eight games — the worst big chance ratio in the league. This is a side sliding towards relegation with barely a fight.
Van Nistelrooy himself looks like a manager waiting for the axe. His in-game decisions have baffled fans, none more so than in the first half against Manchester City, where Leicester produced just 0.02 xG. At half-time, he subbed off Jamie Vardy and brought on Oliver Skipp in a bizarre tactical move. They ended that game with just 0.07 xG, managing only two shots and not a single one on target. The home crowd is restless and increasingly vocal in questioning the club’s direction.
Newcastle, by contrast, look sharp and focused. They beat Brentford midweek and showed no signs of a League Cup hangover. Their away form is solid — W7-D3-L5 — with defeats only coming against Liverpool, Man City, Brentford, Chelsea, and Fulham. They sit sixth in the table, just two points off fourth-placed Chelsea with a game in hand, and boast the fourth-best away record in the league. They’ve failed to score in only three away matches all season.
Against the bottom five, Newcastle have a flawless record: six wins from six, conceding just twice in the process.
Leicester look like they’ve already thrown in the towel. Newcastle, meanwhile, still have everything to play for — and it shows.
- Best Bet: Newcastle -1AH at 1.82 with Bet365
Oxford Utd vs Sheffield Utd
It’s hard to make sense of the odds on a Sheffield United win here.
The Blades are flying, with a record of W26-D7-L6 overall and an impressive W12-D4-L3 on the road — those away defeats coming only at Sunderland, Leeds, and Middlesbrough. They’ve now won six consecutive away games and have taken 10 wins from their last 13 on the road, conceding just 10 goals in that stretch. They’re two points clear of second-placed Leeds, but having started the season on -2 points, they’re effectively four points clear at the top.
Sheffield United have the best away record in the league and only Burnley have conceded fewer goals on their travels. Despite winning six of their last eight, they sit just 19th for expected points (xPTS) over that period — and it’s likely this underperformance in the underlying data is what’s keeping the market cool on them. Across the whole season, they rank 6th for xPTS. Notably, no team has picked up more points than the Blades over the last 12 matches, yet they sit only 13th for xPTS in that same period — clear evidence that they’ve been outperforming their metrics but continuing to get results.
Oxford’s form paints a very different picture. Their record stands at W9-D5-L5, but against the top eight this season they’re W0-D3-L10 — still without a single win. They’ve won just once in their last 11 games and have kept only three clean sheets in that time. Under Gary Rowett, their home form has been solid — W5-D1-L2 — with wins against Cardiff, Plymouth, Blackburn, Luton, and Watford. But context matters: in the last eight games, they rank 24th for both expected points and non-penalty xG ratio.
All signs suggest Sheffield United are undervalued by the market here — the results are real, even if the metrics lag behind. Oxford, meanwhile, are struggling both on the pitch and in the underlying data.
- Best Bet: Sheffield Utd win at 1.85 with Betfred
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest in a pivotal battle for Champions League qualification. Villa currently sit seventh on 48 points, with fifth place likely enough for a Champions League spot this season. With Manchester City just three points ahead in fifth, and Forest sitting third on 57, a win here would close the gap and keep Villa’s European hopes firmly alive.
Unai Emery’s side have been outstanding at Villa Park, boasting a home record of W7 D7 L1—their only loss coming against Arsenal. They’ve scored in 13 of their 15 home matches and look like one of the most in-form teams in the league. January additions, including Marcus Rashford, have added new attacking options. Rashford has started to settle, scoring against Brighton.
Forest, for all their success this season, have struggled on the road against stronger teams. While they’ve collected the third-most away points overall, they’ve conceded 25 goals away from home and have a poor W1-D2-L5 record when visiting top-10 sides—the lone win coming against Liverpool.
Forest are expected to sit deep and counter, but if Villa score first, the visitors will be forced to open up—playing right into Villa’s hands. With superior home form, sharper attacking options, and more momentum, Aston Villa should win this game and keep their Champions League dream alive.
- Best Bet: Villa to win at 2.0 at William Hill
Fulham vs Liverpool
Liverpool travel to Craven Cottage in commanding form, sitting top of the Premier League with a 11-point lead. They’re unbeaten in their last 26 league matches, winning 19 of them, and their recent 1-0 victory over Everton in the Merseyside derby only reinforces their dominance. Despite being knocked out of the League Cup and Champions League by Newcastle and PSG respectively, their Premier League form remains unshaken. With a record of 22 wins, 7 draws, and just 1 loss, they’ve effectively wrapped up the title and are yet to lose away from home this season, averaging 2.53 goals per game on the road while conceding only 16.
Fulham, on the other hand, sit ninth in the table and are still in the mix for a European spot, but their recent form has been patchy. They’ve lost three of their last four games and have won just two of their last eight at home. While they’ve only been beaten twice in that stretch, their vulnerability against top sides has been evident. Arsenal were priced at 1.64 when they visited Craven Cottage earlier this season, the second-shortest price for any away side at Fulham this year—a reflection of how tricky this ground can be. Still, Liverpool’s current level is a class above.
- Best Bet: Liverpool to win at 1.85 with Coral
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