Southampton vs Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace look primed to take all three points against a Southampton side in freefall, and the numbers overwhelmingly back the visitors to get the job done.
Southampton are statistically the worst-performing team in the Premier League across recent weeks. Over the last eight games, they sit 20th for xPTS and for non-penalty xG ratio. They’ve conceded an alarming 1.89 xGA per game—the highest in the division—and created just 0.74 xG per match, with only Leicester producing less. No side has allowed more big chances in that period.
Their home form is dire. Southampton have the worst xPTS at home of any Premier League side, conceding a league-high 2.06 xGA per game and 7.77 shots on target on average. Across their last 20 league games, they’ve won just twice (against Ipswich and an Everton side under Dyche). At home, the numbers are even worse: W1-D1-L12, averaging just 0.71 goals per game and failing to score six times. Under new manager Juric, the home record reads W0-D0-L6 with only three goals scored.
Palace, by contrast, are in outstanding form. They’re 10th overall for xPTS and rank 3rd over the last eight matches, with a non-penalty xG ratio that ranks 4th. They’ve conceded just 0.90 xGA per game in that span, 0.64 from open play, and boast the 4th best big chance ratio. In 2025, across all competitions, they’ve gone W10-D1-L2, conceding only seven goals. They’re unbeaten away from home in the league since October and have lost just three times on the road all season.
Palace have won 10 matches this season, averaging 2.3 goals in those victories and keeping seven clean sheets. Their matches have averaged just 2.46 goals overall, and while Southampton tend to score under Juric (8 of 12 games), they’ve yet to keep a clean sheet.
Palace might not blow the Saints away after their FA Cup quarter-final, but their form, defensive solidity, and Southampton’s dismal home record all point to a controlled, professional away win.
- Best Bet: Crystal Palace to win & under 4.5 goals at 2.0 with Betway
Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd
Nottingham Forest have been rock-solid at home this season, with a strong W8-D4-L2 record, including wins over Man City, Aston Villa, and Crystal Palace, and draws against both Arsenal and Liverpool. Their 7-0 demolition of Brighton was a statement performance, and they’ve conceded just 0.71 goals per game at the City Ground — no team in the league has conceded fewer at home.
Their underlying numbers back it up too: Forest rank 8th for home xPTS, and only Liverpool and Arsenal have earned more points on home soil. Over the last 8 games, they sit 11th for xPTS and have allowed just 0.79 xGA from open play — showing they’re consistently tough to break down.
In contrast, Manchester United have been poor under Rúben Amorim, with a W6-D4-L8 record. Even some of those wins are misleading — they needed two goals in the final minutes to beat City, lost the xG battle badly against Fulham (0.67 vs 0.25), and scored four against Everton from just 1.07 xG. They’ve been inefficient and unreliable.
United rank just 14th for xPTS over the last 8 games, 16th for non-penalty xG ratio, and 17th for big chance ratio — a clear sign their attacking output is weak but also poor defensively. On the road, they’ve picked up just two more points than Wolves all season and only four teams have scored fewer away goals.
All signs point toward Forest having the edge here — both in terms of form, home strength, and underlying numbers. However, we can back Forest on the draw no bet meaning should the game end as a draw we get our money back.
- Best Bet: Nottingham Forest draw no bet at 1.75 with BoyleSports
Man City vs Leicester City
Manchester City are priced at just 1.22 to beat a struggling Leicester side, and all the signs point to a routine, comfortable home win with minimal disciplinary issues.
City looked sharp, particularly in the second half against Bournemouth last time out, and despite not hitting their highest standards this season, their record remains strong at W8-D3-L3. Against the Premier League’s bottom five sides, City are a perfect W7-D0-L0 with a dominant aggregate scoreline of 22-4.
They’ve failed to score in only two home games all season, average 2.14 goals per game at the Etihad, and five of their eight home wins have been by two or more goals. Over the past eight matches, no team has created more big chances, and over the last 12, they rank 4th in xPTS.
Leicester, meanwhile, are in freefall. They’ve lost their last seven games and haven’t scored in any of the last five. Since Ruud van Nistelrooy took over, they’ve managed just 9 goals in 16 games, and after picking up 4 points in his first two matches, they’ve gone W1-D0-L14 across the next 15 – scoring just 4 goals, two of which came in a surprise win over Spurs.
They’ve failed to score in 11 of those 16 games and have been beaten by 2+ goals in 11 of their 13 defeats. Their 1-0 loss to Chelsea saw the Blues miss a penalty, and in the 2-1 defeat to Villa, they generated just 0.41 xG from two shots on target.
Leicester sit 19th for xPTS over the last 12 matches and have the worst big chance ratio in the league over the last eight, managing just one big chance in that time. This is a team going down without much resistance.
From a discipline standpoint, Leicester’s matches under Van Nistelrooy have been tame – averaging just 2.75 cards. They’ve picked up only two cards across their last three games, and the last time a Leicester match saw 5 or more cards was their 2-1 win over Spurs.
Referee Darren England tends to let games flow – he averages 4.69 cards per game in the Premier League this season, with 7 of his 13 matches finishing with 4 or fewer cards. Six of his last eight have also stayed under the 5-card mark.
Man City should cruise to a multi-goal win against a goal-shy, fading Leicester side, and with neither team prone to aggression and a lenient referee in charge, expect a clean match with few cards.
- Best Bet: Man City to win by 2 or more goals & under 5 match cards at 1.83 with Bet365
Bournemouth vs Ipswich Town
Ipswich head to the Vitality Stadium with everything on the line. A win here, coupled with a Wolves defeat to West Ham, would close the gap to just six points heading into a massive relegation six-pointer at home to Wolves on Saturday. With survival still in sight, expect the Tractor Boys to come out with intent.
They’ve shown real threat away from home, scoring 16 goals on the road this season — the same total as Aston Villa and Manchester United. Defensively, they’re more solid than many assume, conceding just one more away goal than Villa and two more than Brighton.
Ipswich have scored in 10 of their 14 away games, with only Arsenal, Forest, Brighton, and Palace keeping them out. They’ve also found the net in 8 of their last 11 overall, only blanking against top-tier defences in Man City, Brighton, and Palace.
The underlying numbers back it up — they rank 8th for xG from set pieces over the last eight matches and have created more big chances in that span than Fulham, Villa, Man United, and Wolves.
Bournemouth matches continue to deliver action at both ends. They’ve conceded in seven of their last eight games and scored in 17 of their last 20. Their form at the Vitality has dipped, losing each of their last four home games in all competitions. Across their last four league matches, they sit 11th for xPTS, showing mid-table form at best.
Defensively, the Cherries are fragile. They’ve averaged 1.14 non-penalty xGA over their last eight games and have conceded the highest xGA from set pieces during that time. At home, they rank 13th for xPTS and are giving up 1.38 xGA per game. Brentford, Southampton, Wolves, and West Ham have all managed to score at the Vitality.
Going forward, though, Bournemouth are dangerous. Over the last eight games, no team has had more shots inside the box, and only Liverpool have produced more xG at home this season.
Bournemouth’s attacking firepower combined with their defensive frailties, and an Ipswich side fighting for their lives and creating quality chances, makes both teams to score the standout angle. Ipswich have kept just two clean sheets all season so it’s very likely that they score here again so we are really getting these odds on Ipswich scoring.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.80 with Ladbrokes
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