Norwich City vs West Brom
Norwich’s season is beginning to fade, currently sitting 13th and six points off the play-offs. This fixture is crucial for their hopes, especially given a strong home record—eight wins, seven draws, and just four defeats at Carrow Road. Only league leaders Leicester have scored more goals at home. However, defensive issues continue to cost them. Only two Championship sides have conceded more home goals, and Norwich have managed just one clean sheet at Carrow Road all season.
The Canaries have failed to score in only two of 19 home matches, while both teams have scored in 16 of those. Over the last eight games, Norwich rank 10th for expected points and 5th for non-penalty xG ratio, averaging 1.16 non-penalty xG and conceding 0.80 non-penalty xGA. At home, the numbers are even more open—1.65 xG for and 1.10 xGA, ranking them 5th for expected home points. Only three Championship sides average more shots on target in home games. Both teams have scored in each of the last six Norwich matches, and in eight of the last ten.
West Brom arrive in a tight play-off battle, currently 6th and level on points with Bristol City. A defeat here could be costly. The Baggies’ away form has been inconsistent (W4 D10 L5), but they pose a regular goal threat, with only six teams scoring more away goals. Defensively, they are solid overall, but away clean sheets have been rare—only three all season, with the last coming back in November.
West Brom have scored in 16 of 19 away matches, and both teams have scored in nine of the last ten on the road. Across the 38 combined games (19 home for Norwich, 19 away for West Brom), just four clean sheets have been recorded, with both teams scoring in 31—an 82% hit rate. The implied odds for that hit rate suggest a line around 1.22, yet this can currently be backed at 1.80, offering strong value.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.80 with Bet365
Barnet vs Gateshead
Barnet are in unstoppable form. They’ve lost just once in their last 20 games and head into this fixture having won 12 of their last 13, conceding only twice during that dominant run. One of those goals came in a comfortable 3-1 win over second-placed York.
At The Hive, Barnet have been exceptional. Their home record stands at W16-D3-L0, with only 12 goals conceded — an average of just 0.63 per game. Remove the 3-3 Boxing Day draw with Sutton and that drops to 0.5 goals per match. This week, they host a Gateshead side in dreadful shape — winless in seven and having lost each of their last five matches.
Gateshead’s away form is inconsistent at best (W7-D6-L6), conceding 1.42 goals per game on average, with five clean sheets and four games without scoring. Crucially, away to teams currently in the top eight, their record is W0-D3-L2 — and trips to both Barnet and Forest Green still to come.
Barnet have shown they can grind out results. While they’ve had a few big score lines, 15 of their 17 home wins have averaged just 3.07 total goals, with only two surpassing the 4.5-goal mark. With Gateshead in freefall and Barnet flying, backing the hosts to win and under 4.5 goals looks like the value play.
- Best Bet: Barnet to win and under 4.5 goals at 1.96 with BetVictor
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